The election results are set to be announced on May 23rd. And the markets are clearly spooked because they know something – Modi isn’t coming back to power, perhaps? This does make sense given that most informed experts are predicting that the BJP will find it hard to come back to power. And these are some of the smartest people around, so, their word means something.
And if this does come to pass then the market will see a sharp and prolonged correction if the BJP doesn’t come back to power. And you know that the markets are always right! Given this increasingly probable reality, it’s better if you make changes to your investing. Because the markets will take a long time to recover and rather to continuing to invest it is better if you pause your investments until the markets recover and catch the next rally.
Few advisors who have seen previous elections cycles are advising that clients withdraw their investments and sit on cash. When clients asked the advisors about exit loads and chances of missing out the probable market rally, the advisors were heard, don’t worry about that.
Here are the signs that the markets know something YOU DON’T:
Mutual funds flows are hitting fresh lows
There’s carnage in the broader markets
India Vix – the official gauge of fear is making new highs, not seen since the last election
And blah blah…
Before you get carried away all this is grade A, primo
Also known in common parlance as
If you read the news headlines off late, it sounds like the world is about to end!
But when hasn’t it? Just check out the homepage of Zerohedge and you’ll realize what I am talking about. The job of the media is to blow things out of proportion or make shit up. Otherwise, how will they get the TRPs and the clicks, on which their survival depends. Hyperbole sells, sanity doesn’t!
Look, at any given point of time, this world is either a hellhole or in a golden age, depending on who you listen to or what you read. The same goes for markets. They are either on the verge of a massive bull rally or on the precipice of a massive crash.
The reality, most often than not, lies somehwere in between.
What should you do?
Let me start off with some quote-porn:
October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.Mark Twain
Stick to your goals and remember why you started investing in the first place. Look, elections will happen, somebody will get elected, the markets will react, and the circle of life will go on. In the short term, all of this is just noise and you’d be wise to tune it out.
Here are the rules. If you are an investor:
Rule 1: Stop reading stupid articles with titles like these, including this one.
Rule 2: Don’t do dumb shit!
Rule 3: Remember rule 2 .
Oh, you think these are just empty words? F*** you, I come with data! Here’s some data by Quantum MF to back up the fact that election results matter only in the near term and not in the long term:
Even when we have elected some of the most accomplished idiots, the economy and the markets have survived and continued to grow:
If you are a trader:
Get the f*** off this blog, I’ve got no words for you. Why are you even here? 😀